Will This Winter Be Cold?

By RISC | 3 weeks ago

You might have already started to feel a cool breeze early in the morning. It’s a subtle sign that we’re now in winter.But will Thailand actually get cold this year? The best place to look for an answer is the Meteorological Department.Thailand usually enters winter around mid-October when the northeast monsoon begins to cover the country, according to past data. This shift brings unpredictable weather as we leave the rainy season. Before winter officially starts, the department forecasts coming weather patterns and shares this information with the public so you can be ready. This long-range forecast is based on statistical methods and climate models.Long-range forecasting, looking ahead more than 10 days, uses meteorological theories along with data from both ground and upper atmospheric observation systems. These measurements include air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed and direction. Data from radar and meteorological satellites further enhance the forecast’s accuracy.The seasonal forecast uses the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) developed by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University. This forecast largely relies on sea surface temperature predictions alongside other meteorological data.So, will it be cold this winter?The Meteorological Department expects winter to start later than usual. Northern Thailand, including the north, northeast, central, and eastern regions, will experience colder weather than last year, with average lows of 20-21°C. In Bangkok, the lowest temperature is expected to be 16-18°C. Surrounding areas may reach 14-16°C. The coldest period will likely be from early December to January. Provinces like Mae Hong Son, Chiang Rai, Phayao, Nan, Loei, Sakon Nakhon, and Nakhon Phanom could see temperatures below 8°C. Meanwhile, southern Thailand may experience some cool areas but will still see lots of rain.The change in the weather may increase the risk of illness. Look after your family, especially children, the elderly, and those with chronic conditions. Be sure you’ve got warm clothing for the cooler weather.Story by: Sirapach Mangkang, Geographic Information System (GIS) specialist, RISCReference:https://tmd.go.th/info/%E0%B8%A4%E0%B8%94%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%A5%E0%B8%82%E0%B8%AD%E0%B8%87%E0%B8%9B%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%B0%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%97%E0%B8%A8%E0%B9%84%E0%B8%97%E0%B8%A2​http://climate.tmd.go.th/content/category/4​http://climate.tmd.go.th/content/category/6​

How Do El Niño and La Niña Affect Thailand?

By RISC | 1 month ago

El Niño and La Niña have had an intense impact in recent years.​They’re part of the southern hemisphere's atmospheric system. El Niño is characterized by warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which affects tropical regions like Thailand in Southeast Asia, often causing drier weather than usual. La Niña has the opposite effect, bringing increased rainfall to tropical regions in Southeast Asia, including Thailand.​​In Thailand, during the second half of 2024, as the El Niño phenomena transitions to La Niña, there will be more rainfall than typical. When paired with other variables such as land use changes and reduced natural forest area, higher rainfall could cause fast flooding in residential areas. It is critical to constantly be prepared, such as elevating items, turning off power on the ground floor, and remaining aware about prospective evacuations if necessary.​​It is uncommon for both occurrences to occur in the same year, mimicking extraordinary weather changes amid global climate change. This serves as a signal to all of us to be prepared and to consider resilience. The more tools we have for adapting to different situations, the more easily we can help ourselves.​​The "Resilience Framework Toolkit" helps us see and understand problems to predict the impact of changes in various forms. The toolkit can help plan property projects and cities that can withstand coming challenges at the building, community, and city levels. ​​Get your copy of Resilience Framework Toolkit now! Pay 600 THB/copy (including shipping) to account number 175-054975-8, Bangkok Bank, MQDC. ​Please send proof of payment along with your name and address on Facebook or Line. Our team will ship the item as soon as possible. ​For online orders, fill in your details and shipping address at https://forms.gle/7ybMXoNZ29Xo826b7 ​If you require a tax invoice, please fill in the details for the receipt (E-Receipt format) at https://forms.gle/WPq8ybbKfxXPmkXi9 ​Or get your copy with special price of 500 baht at: ​DTGO Campus: Empty Cup RISC Office (2nd floor) and Forget-Me-Not Shop (3rd floor) (https://maps.app.goo.gl/kGLM3YcccNysnMcW9)​​Special Offer! Get it for only 500 THB if purchased and picked up in person at DTGO CAMPUS, Empty Cup Building, RISC Office (2nd floor), and Forget-Me-Not Shop (3rd floor) (https://maps.app.goo.gl/kGLM3YcccNysnMcW9).​------------------------------------------------​Story by Woraporn Poonyakanok, Senior Research Engineer and Acting Head of Resilience Research Hub​References:​https://www.tmd.go.th/info/%E0%B8%9B%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%8F%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%93%E0%B8%A5%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%99%E0%B8%8D%E0%B8%B2​https://www.thairath.co.th/scoop/theissue/2786619​

How Different Countries Prevent Floods

By RISC | 3 months ago

The earth entered La Niña in May bringing rainfall and a greater risk of flooding. Floods cause both direct and indirect harm. They damage buildings, homes, transport routes, public utilities, and agricultural and cattle industries. They indirectly impact the economy, safety, and mental health.​Each country around the world has a distinct approach to coping with flooding. Today, let’s look at how other countries manage and cope with floods. ​​Geo-informatics technology is now used by city management organizations all over the world to help with area planning and management to lessen the impact and damage caused by flooding. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in the United States has established the FEMA Flood Map Service Center, a spatial data source that displays flood maps, flood risk maps, and flood insurance rates to support the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and serve as a guideline for relevant people to effectively mitigate impact. ​Singapore employs geographic information technology in flood management, such as a water level measurement system using sensors and CCTV cameras. The system displays real-time events on a warning map when water rises. The system shows flood risk levels and analyzes spatial data to identify flood risk points. A rainfall monitoring and forecasting system predicts rain using radar.​Bangkok uses geographic information technology too. Weather radar data reveals the movement and intensity of rain clouds through remote sensing. Radio waves penetrate raindrops to assist in flood prevention and solutions. The public can also track the movement of rain clouds on the website of the Department of Drainage and Sewerage, Bangkok https://weather.bangkok.go.th/radar/. ​​Bangkok has also created a digital database to detect safety and danger regions (Bangkok Danger Map), which is used in risk management in Bangkok. This website allows us to view flood-risk zones as well as previously flooded areas. https://cpudapp.bangkok.go.th/riskbkk/index.htmlIn addition, the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (Public Organization), or GISTDA, has created a decision support system for disaster area management, as well as a spatial data service system for floods, forest fires, and drought. The technology will display Thailand's current general position to estimate future degree of damage and threats. We can all monitor the situation on the website https://disaster.gistda.or.th/#4.87/13.16/101.49. ​​Every day, more rain falls. If you are interested in dealing with floods on your own, review the material available on these public sources to ensure its reliability and benefits for preparing to reduce flood damage. ​Story by: Sirapach Mangkang, Geographic Information System (GIS) specialist, RISC ​References: ​https://msc.fema.gov/portal/home ​https://www.pub.gov.sg/Public/KeyInitiatives/Flood-Management ​https://pr-bangkok.com/?p=258971 ​https://weather.bangkok.go.th/radar/ ​https://disaster.gistda.or.th/#4.87/13.16/101.49 ​https://gistda.or.th/news_view.php?n_id=2883&lang=TH ​

Ozone’s Dual Role in Global Warming

By RISC | 5 months ago

Global warming has long been recognized as a significant worldwide issue with serious consequences for the environment and human society. An increase in greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is causing the global average temperature to keep rising, bringing natural disasters and harming our ecosystems and lives.​​Ozone is the most significant greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide.​ ​Ozone (O₃) is generated by the combination of oxygen (O₂), which is common in the air, and free oxygen atoms (O₂₋), which are broken down by ultraviolet light (UV) from oxygen molecules.When ozone absorbs energy from the sun's ultraviolet radiation, however, it undergoes the same breakdown, resulting in free oxygen atoms and oxygen gas molecules.​Ozone plays conflicting roles to global warming and climate change.​ In the stratosphere, the middle layer of the atmosphere, ozone protects against damaging radiation from the sun and reduces heat absorption from the earth's surface. In the lower atmosphere, in the troposphere, ozone contributes to the greenhouse effect.​Let's see how…​Ground level ozone is from 0 to 2 kilometers in the troposphere. Most of this ozone now comes from chemical reactions caused by human activities. Automobile and industrial exhaust contain nitrogen oxide (NOₓ) as the main component. Photochemical reactions and ultraviolet radiation from volatile organic compounds (VOC), house paint, cigarette smoke, bleach, or insecticides boost ozone levels. Ground-level ozone harms our health and also traps heat radiation from the earth's surface, causing global temperatures to rise. It is 3 times more efficient at absorbing heat than carbon dioxide.​New inventions and advances can reduce dangerous pollutants that cause ozone production in the troposphere. Small aerosol particle capture systems such as nitrogen oxide gas removal systems can minimize ozone emissions from industrial plants, as well as emissions from internal combustion engines in electric and hybrid automobiles. These developments and technologies are regarded as one of the most essential strategies to mitigate the consequences of global warming, together with reducing other greenhouse gas emissions such as carbon dioxide and methane to maintain ecological balance and a hospitable environment.​​Story by Chanin Kulsurakit, Sustainable Designer, WELL AP, DGNB International, TREES-A specialist, and DGNB Consultant at RISC​

Watch Out for Heatstroke in Hot Weather

By RISC | 8 months ago

Everyone complains about the heat in February and March but it’s just the beginning… ​​This year's El Niño and climate change may bring even more extreme weather, increasing the danger of heatstroke. ​​Heatstroke happens when our bodies can’t keep a consistent body temperature in 2 situations: ​• Strenuous exercise in extremely hot and humid conditions​• Staying in hot and humid conditions for too long, especially among the elderly and people with chronic conditions.The body's temperature rises continually, coupled with symptoms such as shortness of breath, rapid pulse, headaches, dizziness, weakness, and nausea.​ ​If you come across someone suffering from heatstroke, immediately put them into the shade with enough ventilation. Apply ice on the forehead, neck, armpits, and groin before transporting them to the hospital.​To prevent heatstroke, drink water frequently, wear light clothing with sufficient ventilation, apply sunscreen, and avoid consuming alcohol.​Story by Woraporn Poonyakanok, Senior Research Engineer and Acting Head of Resilience Research Hub at RISC ​References:​https://www.bangkokbiznews.com/environment/1116005​https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/topics/heatstress/heatrelillness.html#stroke

Can GIS Save Us from Floods?

By RISC | 9 months ago

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) declared that the world had entered the El Niño on 5 July 2023 and it continues.​El Niño severely affects many countries, including Thailand, bringing extremely high air temperatures and drought. The strong El Niño will continue to weaken from March to May 2024 and reach neutral status (ENSO-neutral). La Niña will start from July, according to a forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States (NOAA) in January. Thailand should therefore escape drought in the second half of 2024 but might instead face flooding.​We already know there is a risk of flooding, but how do we know which areas are at risk? ​Geographic Information System (GIS) is a technology many agencies around the world use for spatial analysis and prediction. ​​What is GIS? ​​GIS is a technology for collecting, organizing, analyzing, and presenting spatial data. It can help us understand relationships and trends in each area so that management can effectively deal with various changes. ​We can see which areas are at risk of flooding by combining information from various sources. Some important factors have been analyzed, including rainfall data, high-level numerical models (DEM), river networks, and river obstacles, as well as areas that have repeatedly flooded from satellite images.GIS and spatial analysis theory results can be shown in map format. Relevant agencies and the public can use these findings in decision making, surveillance, or proactive work to prepare for a flood before it occurs.​As the rainy season approaches, La Niña could have a greater impact than anticipated. If we check with relevant agencies if we’re in a flood-prone area, we can plan and prepare ahead of time, reducing the damage.​Story by: Sirapach Mangkang, Geographic Information System (GIS) specialist, RISC ​References:​https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf​https://gistda.or.th/news_view.php?n_id=2883

What's in the Global Risks Report for 2024?

By RISC | 10 months ago

RISC brings you a summary of the World Economic Forum’s global risk report for 2024 so you know which issues to watch out for.​Global Risks Report 2024 examines short-term risks over 2 years and long-term threats over 10 years, categorizing them as economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological.​​The first 2-year short-term dangers is misinformation and disinformation, in the technology risk category. The 2nd risk is extreme weather and the 3rd is societal divisiveness.Most short-term dangers during the next 2 years fall under the sociological category: "social polarization" (3rd), "lack of economic opportunity" (6th), and "involuntary migration" (8th). Environmental dangers are "extreme weather events" (2nd) and "pollution" (9th).​The long-term risks for the next 10 years include several environmental issues: "extreme weather events" (1), "critical change to Earth systems" (2), "biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse" (3), "natural resource shortages" (4), and "pollution" (10).​The long-term outlook includes global turbulence up 46%. Risks in several areas, including economic, environmental, geopolitical, sociological, and technological, are all interconnected. Cooperation between all sectors is vital, from the global to the local level, to solve problems and restore a sustainable world.​​To read the full version of the 2024 Global Risk Report, go to: https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2024/​Story by Woraporn Poonyakanok, Senior Research Engineer and Acting Head of Resilience Research Hub at RISC​References:World Economic Forum​

Make a New Year Resolution to Reduce Carbon​

By RISC | 11 months ago

As the new year approaches, you might be looking forward to time with family and loved ones or to sitting down to reflect on the past year and set goals for the coming one in areas such as business, work, study, or love.​So should we set carbon reduction goals?​Our new year resolutions can help rescue the planet by addressing climate change and reducing carbon emissions to avert global warming. Let's see what we can come up with…​• Reduce or save energy since personal carbon footprint is influenced by energy use at home. Choose energy-efficient equipment and use it only when you must.​• Reduce or change travel patterns by cutting back on unnecessary trips, taking public transit, or switching to a vehicle that emits no greenhouse emissions.​• During this lengthy holiday, reorganize your home by finding useable goods you rarely use but are still in good condition. Donate or sell them, not only to save the world but also to make a little money.​• Reduce food waste because it contributes significantly to carbon emissions. Carbon emissions start with farming or livestock production and processing plants. If food’s not eaten, it decomposes and emits even more greenhouse gases.​• Shop sustainably by purchasing plants to absorb carbon from the air or switching from a gasoline automobile to an electric car. But even the most eco-friendly product has an environmental cost. Before acquiring anything, ask yourself if you really need it.​As we can see, there are lots of straightforward ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to leave a livable Earth to future generations. RISC believes we can all do it!!​

How Will Rising Global Temperatures Affect Us?​

By RISC | 1 year ago

Humans must try to stop our planet from rising more than 1.5°C or 2°C from before the Industrial Revolution. You’ve probably heard this remark and are concerned about the serious repercussions of rising temperatures.Adjusting the air conditioner temperature by 0.5°C may make no difference. But a half-degree change for the world could plunge millions into misery.​The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has announced that the global temperature is up 1.5°C.​ But what happens if the average temperature rises further?​If the world average temperature rises by 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, the polar ice caps will melt every 100 years in summer. If average world temperatures climb by 2°C, Arctic ice might melt every 10 years.​The Australian Climate Council has compared the effects of various factors. If the global average temperature rises by 1.5 °C, coral reefs worldwide will decline by 70-90%. But reefs may shrink by 99% if global temperatures rise by 2°C. Many microscopic organisms live on coral reefs. If they die out, it’ll have a major impact on coastal ecosystems and our food supply.​If global average temperatures rise by 1.5°C, around 14% of the world's population will be at risk of excessive heat every 5 years, rising to 37% if global average temperatures climb by 2°C.​As a result of this substantially different impact, the worldwide community agreed to the Paris Agreement to limit the global average temperature increase to no more than 1.5°C before it’s too late.​Story by Woraporn Poonyakanok, Senior Research Engineer Acting Head of Resilience Research Hub at RISC​References:​1. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/2c-global-warming-difference-explained/ ​2. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2022/06/SR15_Full_Report_HR.pdf ​3. https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/infographic-the-difference-between-1-5-and-2-degrees-warming/

How Will "Global Boiling" Affect Us?​

By RISC | 1 year ago

We’ll all heard the terms "global warming" and "climate change" for changes in the weather and more frequent natural disasters.​Large forest fires on Rhodes and Maui were clear examples in July and August. Both events resulted in large-scale evacuations.​But everything appears to be getting worse. The United Nations Secretary-General has warned that the era of global warming is over and the era of “global boiling" has begun. The European Union's Copernicus Earth Observation Programme reported the hottest day on record in July.​Extreme weather such as heat waves, floods, droughts, forest fires, powerful storms, and high temperature and acidic sea water could result. Localized effects include less seasonal rainfall, which affects agriculture, fisheries, and cattle. Higher prices could eventually lead to food shortages.​We must take this issue seriously to solve it. Every sector must work together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050 to limit global warming to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels and conserve the world's ecosystems. The best approach is for everyone to work together.Read MQDC's goal for Nature Positive & Carbon Negative 2050 at https://bit.ly/3s35Fwe​Story by Woraporn Poonyakanok, Senior Research Engineer Acting Head of Resilience Research Hub at RISC ​References:​https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/jul/27/scientists-july-world-hottest-month-record-climate-temperatures​https://www.bot.or.th/th/research-and-publications/article/chaengsibia/article-2023sep05.html