Will This Winter Be Cold?
Created By RISC | 2 months ago
Last modified date : 2 months ago
You might have already started to feel a cool breeze early in the morning. It’s a subtle sign that we’re now in winter.
But will Thailand actually get cold this year? The best place to look for an answer is the Meteorological Department.
Thailand usually enters winter around mid-October when the northeast monsoon begins to cover the country, according to past data. This shift brings unpredictable weather as we leave the rainy season. Before winter officially starts, the department forecasts coming weather patterns and shares this information with the public so you can be ready. This long-range forecast is based on statistical methods and climate models.
Long-range forecasting, looking ahead more than 10 days, uses meteorological theories along with data from both ground and upper atmospheric observation systems. These measurements include air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed and direction. Data from radar and meteorological satellites further enhance the forecast’s accuracy.
The seasonal forecast uses the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) developed by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University. This forecast largely relies on sea surface temperature predictions alongside other meteorological data.
So, will it be cold this winter?
The Meteorological Department expects winter to start later than usual. Northern Thailand, including the north, northeast, central, and eastern regions, will experience colder weather than last year, with average lows of 20-21°C. In Bangkok, the lowest temperature is expected to be 16-18°C. Surrounding areas may reach 14-16°C. The coldest period will likely be from early December to January. Provinces like Mae Hong Son, Chiang Rai, Phayao, Nan, Loei, Sakon Nakhon, and Nakhon Phanom could see temperatures below 8°C. Meanwhile, southern Thailand may experience some cool areas but will still see lots of rain.
The change in the weather may increase the risk of illness. Look after your family, especially children, the elderly, and those with chronic conditions. Be sure you’ve got warm clothing for the cooler weather.
Story by: Sirapach Mangkang, Geographic Information System (GIS) specialist, RISC
Reference:
https://tmd.go.th/info/%E0%B8%A4%E0%B8%94%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%A5%E0%B8%82%E0%B8%AD%E0%B8%87%E0%B8%9B%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%B0%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%97%E0%B8%A8%E0%B9%84%E0%B8%97%E0%B8%A2
http://climate.tmd.go.th/content/category/4
http://climate.tmd.go.th/content/category/6